Although it is nearly impossible to predict an earthquake, practices in advance warning systems are in place, based on previous events, though far from ideal. The latest resurgings in activity may show signs of a looming mega-earthquake, probably a 7.0 or higher in the near future, and this region is ill-equipped for it. Disaster might be unavoidable, but impact can be minimized though GIS analysis.

 

These maps show suggested evacuation routes out of the hazard zone, shown in warm colors on the map. Should an advisory be declared, residents would evacuate using the color-coded roads and interstates out of the zone via the Evacuation Guides on the maps. Generally, since each zone is laid out almost east and west of each other, the ideal option is to venture north or south to safety.

 

About the Maps

A 140-mile radius was spatially defined about the highest-risk area in Missouri (New Madrid) and a 75-mile each for those in SC and TN, and street detail is more emphasized in these buffers for guidance. The buffer size was based on post-reactionary analysis from the 1811-1812 mega-earthquakes in northern Arkansas and New Madrid, MO (USGS). Even though quakes of this magnitude could be felt as far away as New York, as it was at that time, and evacuation does not guarantee 100% safety, an evacuation using this analysis would still minimize the death toll by a large stretch. Interstates are best for travel, but secondary roads are best for safety especially in the open rural plains. It does not matter where residents go, as long as they are outside and away from tall buildings or objects. Depending on where residents live, they can follow the nearest highlighted routes for guidance. Again, these routes are the most direct ways out of the area, but other paths can be taken if more direct, especially in the outer edges of the zones. For more information about these seismic hazard areas, consult USGS.